Climate, water and the need for serious humour

Toxic Link on Traditional Delhi Water Systems
Bhagwad on the Arrogance of Skepticism
Bill Maher on what baby-making theories have to do with theories of climate change

I've written two funny posts in a row, and this one ends in a very funny video.  So it only seems fair that you put up with a few short paragraphs of serious business about climate change, weather and water.

Climate change is one of those issues that we keep coming back to, not because we want to, but because it's just so important.  As the climate changes, the earth will change in unpredictable ways.  For a place like India, where millions and millions of people are happy if they get two--to say nothing of three--meals a day, unpredictable is obviously a terrifying word, especially when it comes to things (like rain) that affect food crops. We all like to predict when our next meal is coming.

It's not surprising that climate change will lead to change in weather patterns in many parts of the world. Yes, the sun will still shine; it will just feel warmer in most places. And the rain will still fall, just not in the same way or in the same places that it used to.  (There's a lot of research on this, and I'm not up to hyperlinking it all right now.  The posts up at our climate page are full of links.) 

Nobody is really sure what all this will look like, but it seems clear that rain fed farms will be the hardest hit.  If you don't have access to irrigation, you are stuck when it doesn't rain or when it floods; it's not easy to pack up your farm and move it to a wetter--or dryer--location.  This will likely be a huge and growing problem in decades to come: nearly 80 million hectares out of India's net sown area of around 143 million hectares rely on rain water, as they have no access irrigation.  And there is clear evidence that the water table throughout north India is falling, so even irrigated farms are in danger.

Of course, water is not just a problem in rural areas.  We in Delhi suffer our own water woes.  If you want to learn more about this issue, Toxic Link is holding a program on September 15 at IIC in Delhi that looks interesting.  It's called, "Traditional Water Systems of Delhi." You can read more about it over at the Delhi Greens site.  Here's something from Toxic Link's description of the event:

"A little water is a sea to an ant.” An eco system is made up of many small parts, which could be erroneously thought of as insignificant. Within the intersection of mega scale urban planning and the impacts of climate the almost lost traditional water systems of Delhi need to be revisited urgently.

Of course, a lot of people want to believe that climate change really isn't a problem.  I'd like to rant here, but will contain myself.  Instead, I'll send you to Bhagwad's Expressions.  He looks at the tendency of some people to believe they know more than scientists about climate change just because they've read a lot of stuff on the internet or seen a lot of YouTube videos. Actually, he says it much more clearly than that--you should read it and the discussion it's generated.

Finally, let's look at two videos. The first is sent to us by Bhagwad.  If you haven't seen Bill Maher talk about climate change, you should watch this. In it, he explains what theories of baby making teach us about climate change.  Sometimes, funny people can say serious things best.

And here's a totally different way of looking at climate: Red Card.  (Thanks Minal).

More Water: The Story of Bottled Water and a Photo Essay from National Geographic

I was just beginning a really interesting post on the Commonwealth Games--how much it's costing, what it's good for, that kind of thing, when I came down with a stomach bug! Nothing serious, but Yuck--and it's left my mind incapable of much original thought.  But never fear, I've got a solution:  since Monday was World Water Day, let me show you two things about water that you'll want to see.

First, take a look at National Geographic's amazing photo essay on water.

Next, check out Annie Leonard's latest contribution to the Story of Stuff Project: The Story of Bottled Water.

Like The Story of Stuff and The Story of Cap and Trade, The Story of Bottled Water lays things out simply.  It is aimed at an American audience, and I'd like to see Leonard give India's plastic recycling industry a more thoughtful and sympathetic look than she does here, but if you're trying to produce something that runs just over 8 minutes, then I guess you have to make some hard calls.  All in all, it's worth watching.

Oh and speaking of water, I was recently reminded of the hack job that Open Magazine ran a couple months back.  They recycled press releases and sound bites from right wing American think tanks and well known climate skeptics and made a lot of outrageous claims.  I documented some of that here and some over on their site, here.  Anyway, one of the many bits of good news Open delivered was this: "Another total lie has been that the Sunderbans in Bangladesh are sinking on account of the rise in sea level."  The only problem is, that the sea level is rising--in fact, it just swallowed a small island in the Bay of Bengal. 

None of us want to think our children's future is in peril; climate deniers are selling a story we all want to believe in: don't worry, it will all be fine.   Even I want to believe that story--even I want to be able to say that to my children.  But the overwhelming amount of scientific evidence suggests we have a great deal to worry about--and that everything will not be fine, not for a very long time, even if we take strong action now.  And if we don't take strong action? Let's save that story for another day.

Hack Job at Open Magazine

On Saturday, I coincidentally saw two important pieces on the recent criticism being leveled at climate science. One was Open Magazine's current cover story; the other was a statement on the Himalayan glacier controversy from the citizen activists at Delhi Platform.  These seemed important to look at sooner, rather than later, so I'm running this issue of the dhaba on Monday instead of our usual Tuesday.   I'll examine each piece in turn.

This week, Open Magazine's cover story is boldly titled, "The Climate Change Fraud."  The article, which pretends to be an investigative expose of science gone wrong, claims climate change is a "hoax" and a "fraud" and that "never have so few fooled so many for so long, ever."  If you are wondering how it is that little old Open managed to beat every mainstream paper and reputable science journal in the world to this story, I'll explain it to you: Open's scoop does not actually involve journalism; it is a sloppy rehash of arguments from climate skeptics' web sites, press releases and films.  Open's reporter, Ninad Sheth, makes no effort get a variety of perspectives; the quotes he provides come exclusively from a small group of well-known climate change deniers and skeptics, most of whom give quotes for a living.

Compare Open's incompetence with Tehelka this week.  When Tehelka wanted to do a story about the fighting in Chhattisgarh, they did what good magazines are supposed to do: they sent a reporter and a photographer into the field where they spent seven days, at considerable risk to themselves, in territory where both the Maoists and the Salwa Judum are active. They interviewed a wide variety of villagers about the problems they face living in a war zone.   Also this week, in their cover story on Bihar, Tehelka managed to interview both Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad.  Tehelka is not perfect; I've been critical of them before.  But unlike Open, Tehelka generally expects their journalists to practice... journalism.

I'd love to spend all day going through the Open story and picking out the ridiculous bits.  But I'm going to resist.  Instead, I'll say just a few words about Open's "expert" sources--something their reporter chose not to do.   Open slams Dr. Rajendra K Pachauri, "the leader of the climate change mafia" for "having no training whatsoever in climate science." But they won't tell you that Lord Christopher Monckton, the "climate expert" who they rely on to criticize climate graphs used by Pachauri,  doesn't have any formal training in climate science either. Lord Monckton of Brenchley boasts a degree in classics and a diploma in journalism, which may explain the difficulty he's had interpreting graphs in the past.  For the record, Lord Monckton  is employed as Chief Policy Adviser for the Science and Public Policy Institute (SPPI), an American climate skeptics' think tank.  SPPI does not reveal the sources of it's funding, and it is not required to do so by US law.  We do know that SPPI founder Robert Ferguson has had a long term and lucrative relationship with the oil industry.

Or take Patrick Michaels who works, according to Open, for "the Cato Institute, a noted US think-tank." Just to be clear, the Cato Institute may be "noted," for it's eclectic blend of right wing and libertarian views, but a quick internet search will tell you it is neither mainstream nor neutral, endorsing as it does legalization of drugs and the privatization of the American Social Security system.  Michaels by the way, admits to have taken large amounts of money from big oil companies, a practice that many consider a conflict of interests.  So when Open quotes Michaels as saying that Dr. Pachauri should resign, because, among other things, "he has a consistent record of mixing his political views with climate science," it sounds a bit off.  After all, mixing politics with science is what Michaels gets paid to do; his own organization boasts that he "barely has time to sleep. With more than 150 media appearances since the breaking of what has come to be called "Climategate," he has quickly become the most recognized face decrying the obstructionism of global warming alarmists." 

So let's be clear; Open didn't break this story; they just uncritically bought an old package being sold by right-wing American think tanks with close ties to the oil industry.   If the editors at Open really believed this story were true,  they would have had to fact check it and evaluate opposing views; a story of this magnitude would require as much. That they didn't suggests this was  nothing more than a cynical effort to sell magazines. Shame!

 *******

By now it is clear that serious mistakes--and in some cases even misrepresentations--have been made by climate scientists, both in India and abroad.  Some of these are reprehensible; some merely regrettable.  My sense is that the reaction of most environmentalists has been healthy.  There is no use pretending that this kind of stuff doesn't hurt.   Climate scientists need to get their house in order; we cannot tolerate sloppy or dishonest science on this issue--it's much too important for that, the stakes a too high. But so far there has been nothing revealed, in hacked emails or anywhere else, that in any way undermines the lion's share of the research that supports the idea that human made climate change is a huge and growing problem.  To prove that, you'd need to find a hacked email that reads something like this.

For a more thoughtful look at this issue as it's playing out locally, let's look at a statement from Delhi Platform, an organization is made up of citizen activists who think climate change is a problem, but don't apologize for sloppy science.  These activists are not formally trained scientists, they are not reporters, they don't get paid for the work they do or the magazines they sell.  However, the members I have met are extraordinarily dedicated, well-read, and articulate.   Here's what they have to say about the Himalayan Glacier controversy; feel free to pass this statement on others who might be interested.  I think it is thoughtful, serious, and grounded in real science. I urge you to read it carefully.  You can get in touch with Delhi Platform here.

DELHI PLATFORM

Statement on the Himalayan Glaciers controversy

29 January 2010

                                    

A huge controversy has been generated in recent days over the much quoted lines in the IPCC’s 2007 report: “Glaciers in the Himalaya are receding faster than in any part of the world and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate” (Working Group 2, page 493). We do need to question how a statement of such magnitude, without peer review, made its way into the IPCC report. That it was discovered, externally, more than two years later raises concerns about both the mindset and the weakness of the processes of the IPCC in checking and correcting information they collate, information that is so vital in the global debate. However, to question the credibility of the science of the global warming, supported as it is by a wealth of empirical evidence, or to question IPCC’s work, as is happening in some quarters, is gross exaggeration and sometimes driven by dubious and malafide intentions.

More importantly, the ongoing debate ignores four key issues:

one, that glacial melting, happening extensively in many regions and altitudes of the Himalayas, is already impacting people’s lives in the Indian Himalayan states;

two, science ignores people’s own perceptions of their reality and their context;

three, the critics have not properly placed the issue in the overall context and fragility of glaciers globally; and

four, that the situation is going to unavoidably worsen, hence deepening an unfolding crisis of access to water.

Since the Earth’s average warming gets amplified into much higher levels of warming in the mid-level Himalayas and at higher altitudes, the impacts there are already huge and varied. At a public hearing on ‘Impacts of Climate Change on the Himalayan Region’, organized by Oxfam India in late 2009, people from different Himalayan communities presented testimonies of extensive melting, receding and disappearance of small glaciers in parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand based on their lived experience over the years. One professional guide who has traversed high altitudes for many years talked of the disappearance of numerous small glaciers over the last 20 years in J&K. Small glaciers, said another speaker, have disappeared from the Sarva Valley. Sigri and Chhotadhara glacier, both in Himachal, are receding rapidly. The Dhani Nara glacier, also in Himachal Pradesh, does not exist any more. Numerous presenters talked of lessening and irregular snowfall in recent years. This has obvious impacts on glacial mass and melting in the medium term. Women spoke of how water sources have dried up, already causing distress in their daily lives, impacting drinking water access and water supply for agriculture.

People’s observations of their lived reality over time and of the impacts of global warming on their lives need to be given greater space and credence than is being done at the moment by formal science. This is particularly relevant in the area of glacial melting in the Himalayas given that many authorities, including the minister for environment and forests Jairam Ramesh, have acknowledged that Himalayan glaciers have been little studied. Why has the Himalayan glaciers issue received such inadequate attention until now? Of the thousands of glaciers in the Indian Himalayas, reliable baseline data exists for relatively few. In the absence of baseline data, it would be crucial to tap the lived experience of people who have lived in the vicinity of glaciers for decades.

Focusing on the erroneous date 2035 alone glosses over the already precarious state of glaciers worldwide, including in many parts of the Himalayas. A study by the World Glacier Monitoring Service in 2005 of 442 glaciers stated that 90% of them were receding. The much respected glaciologist Lonnie Thompson has said recently that of the 800 Himalayan glaciers being monitored, 95% are receding (Guardian, 20 January 2010). That tropical glaciers are receding worldwide are indicative of the fate of subtropical Himalayan glaciers. Ren, Jiawen, et al state: “Many glaciers on the South slope of the central Himalaya have been in retreat, and recently their retreat rate has accelerated … due to reduced precipitation and warmer temperatures” (Annals of Glaciology, vol. 43, no. 1, Sept 2006). Anil Kulkarni, et al’s oft-quoted study of 466 glaciers in the Baspa, Parbati and Chenab basins indicates greater fragmentation of glaciers, and reduction in glacial area by 21% since the mid-20^th century (Current Science, vol. 92, no. 1, 10 Jan 2007). A study of mass balance of glaciers, of “all published Himalayan-Karakoram measurements” shows that overall “they are more negative after 1995”. Though increase in mass loss rate “need not be true of every part of the region … the mass loss rate is consistent with the global average (Jeffrey Kargel, et al, ‘Satellite-era Glacier Changes in High Asia’, AGU conference, December 2009). Dobhal and Mehta’s study of the Dokriani glacier in the Bhagirathi basin says that “The present snout … is continuously retreating, like other glaciers of the Himalaya” (Himalayan Geology, n.d.).

Glaciers have also been thinning at high altitudes. Lonnie Thompson, in an interview to Nature said: “Back in 2006, we drilled three cores in the southwestern Himalayas. At 6,050 metres, where these glaciers reach their highest elevation, we found that … the glaciers are being decapitated. Not only are they retreating up the mountain slopes, but they are thinning from the top down” (Nature Reports Climate Change, 9 July 2009).

This precarious state of glaciers is going to unavoidably worsen because of further global warming in the pipeline, since there is a 25-30 year lag between emissions and warming. As it is, the drying of water sources is being exacerbated by indiscriminate damming of rivers and creation of run-of-the-river projects in the Himalayan states, in the face of considerable resistance from people across these states. All of this is going to worsen the water crisis unfolding for the poor, particularly poor women, in the Himalayas. Any debate on the Himalayan glaciers needs to keep them at its centre.

Rather than view glaciers collectively, it would be more appropriate to view them in a disaggregated way, since impacts on specific glaciers affect specific communities and people dependent on them. Not only is there a compelling need to carry out a comprehensive study of Himalayan glaciers in cooperation with other nations who are part of this rich ecosystem, the process also needs to have the people as a vital and engaged constituent. And the resultant information needs to be in the public domain.

Melting glaciers and the more irregular rainfall patterns in recent years makes the creation of appropriate small and large water harvesting structures absolutely urgent. In which both the government and local organizations have a crucial role to play. The National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) can be usefully deployed towards this end, but this requires greater political will by local elites and the administration at different levels than they have displayed thus far. There is clearly an urgent need to anticipate and prepare for acute water stress in the Himalayan region and beyond.