Hard times ahead? Fertilizer, famine and the future of our farms

Is the sun setting on the "green revolution"?

In which I explain what my father-in-law and Karl Marx forgot to tell us about the source of wealth and food...

Last week The Hindu ran two pieces which, when taken together, serve to remind us how very vulnerable our whole system of food production is to forces beyond our control. First, Raghuvansh Prasad Singh takes on the whole issue of fertilizer subsidy, explaining that our reliance on chemical fertilizers is really a reliance on foreign petrochemical companies and fertilizer producers:

There have been concerns raised by several policy experts and others that the fertilizer policy of the country is only helping to move out the Indian tax payers' money to foreign petroleum companies and fertilizer producers. It is to be noted here that fertilizer production is highly dependent on fossil fuels, and that most fertilizers are imported.

Even more interesting, is the whole question of what the farmers think about soil degradation. What farmers know--and don't know--about that topic is striking. Here's Singh again:

In the mad rush to balance the chemical fertilizer kitty with global prices, policy makers are forgetting a huge problem that is staring us in the face — the deteriorating soil in the country and the resultant threat to food security. However farmers are aware of the crisis, but are helpless in the absence of support systems from the government. A recent Greenpeace India report, “Of Soils, Subsidies and Survival,” based on social audits conducted in five Indian States, has revealed that 96 per cent out of the 1,000 farmers surveyed were of the opinion that the use of chemical fertilisers led to soil degradation but they continue to use them as there was no other option. Ninety-four per cent of the surveyed farmers believed that only organic fertilisers can maintain soil health. However, only one per cent of the farmers received any kind of support for production and the use of organic fertilisers. Ninety-eight per cent of the surveyed farmers were ready to use organic fertilisers if they are subsidised and made easily available...Further, only 34 per cent of them knew that chemical fertilisers are subsidised. Of those who knew, only seven per cent knew that a new subsidy system (NBS) was introduced by the government for chemical fertilizers. Even at the subsidised rate, 94 per cent of them thought that chemical fertilisers are unaffordable and not economical.

Later in the week, Andrew Simms gave us "Our addiction to oil is draining every drop." Simms reminds of two sobering facts: first, most of our economy depends on cheap fossil fuel, and second, we are running out of that cheap fossil fuel. Here's a taste:

We all became, and remain, hooked on its convenience. Today's energy supplies provide the equivalent of the work of 22 billion slaves, according to former oil industry man Colin Campbell. But now the wave of oil looks set to leave us high and dry. At well over $100 per barrel, prices are climbing again to the level last reached in 2008. Since then, however, the tone of commentary has changed.

That comment about slavery, by the way, reminded me of my university days, when many of my red friends were fond of announcing, "labour creates all wealth, comrade!" Come to think of it, I think I even announced that a few times. Today, I don't really feel up to a full discussion of c+L=W or other aspects of the Labour Theory of Value... or the opening paragraph of Marx's Critique of the Gotha Progamme...or even my father-in-law's take on all that in an Indian context: FARMS+ the Labour of Farmers=Wealth. 


Anyway, if I really did go and try to write a full on critique of Marxist economics, I'm sure someone from SARAI would take me to task for lack of intellectual rigour and the rest of you would stop reading. 


But permit me this much at least: wealth cannot be generated and food cannot be grown over the long run if it is not done so sustainably. And our current systems of industrial and agricultural production depend on us using fossil fuels (which is really ancient solar energy) and what is left of the organic content of the soil (which is more recent solar energy) in a way that is unsustainable. See, that's the thing neither Marx, nor my father-in-law ever completely got their large minds around.


And if that was too confusing, I think these three simple statements may be a bit more clear:
1) Over-farmed Indian soil increasingly requires fertilizer in order to give food.
2) Fertilizer requires a lot of fossil fuel to produce.
3) Oil supplies are falling and prices are rising--in the short and long term.


Add those up, and you can see we are in trouble, even without taking into account falling water tables and climate change. The problems are easy to understand, but the solutions are much more complex. And the price of failure is high indeed: lacking a real solution to these problems, the best we can hope for is that hunger will continue to stalk the land; at worse, we will see famine and the widespread breakdown of social order. 

***

For more on food, check out our Food Security page. Also, Mira Kamdar's series in Slate: On the front lines of the global food crisis.

Saving seeds: Natabar Sarangi goes against the grain

This week we are focusing on food. On Tuesday, Kabir Arora shared a photo report from last month's Millet Festival, organized by the Deccan Development Society and the Millets Network. He also sent us a link to this interesting video about Natabar Sarangi, who is working to save indigenous seeds in an era where Monsanto would like us to believe that genetically modified, copyrighted seeds are our only option.

But Monsanto is wrong: we can't afford to lose the knowledge of the past because it may hold the key to our survival in the future. Here's a bit of the intro that's posted with this video on Youtube:

Natabar Sarangi is just one of a growing number of farmers throughout the world who realise that if we do not begin to repair the damage taking place to our agricultural systems and our environment, we will lose not just our cultural identity but our fundamental right to a truly sustainable system of food security...Natabar continues to find, save and share his indigenous rice seed with local farmers.  To date he has managed to re-introduce over 350 varieties.

Now here's the video. 

For more about related topics, check our the dhaba's food security page.

Photo Report: Millet Festival organized by Deccan Development Society and Millets Network of India

A week or two back, I wrote about the green side of peanuts. Kabir Arora read the post and sent in this report about another aspect of green agriculture: millets. Millets matter not just because they are good for you, but because they use less water and are more resistant to the affects of climate change: heat, drought, flooding, etc. For that reason, it's good to have Kabir's report, and I would love to run more on the subject by people who know more than me.

 *****

Here are some photographs from the Millet festival organized by Deccan Development Society and Millets Network of India in Medak Andhra Pradesh recently.

Millets are considered to be the most nutritious cereals which can be grown in any climatic condition. They are drought resistant and at many places flood resistant, need minimum investment. With the spread of Green Revolution, millet cultivation was discouraged both by the government and society. But still Indian population is largest producer and consumer of millets. All over India millets are grown in rain fed areas with minimum use of chemicals-in other words they are a part of Organic Sustainable Agriculture. Mostly, millets are grown by Dalits, Adivasis and women. So they are the key for their empowerment. 

 
The Millets Network of India and the Deccan Development Society are working for the promotion of Millet Farming. Because of  their constant lobbying with the government, millets are going to be included in "Food Security Bill", that is the only positive thing of the bill. A couple of weeks back, they they organized the festival to celebrate the heritage of millets. People from all over India participated. Views like Medak for Millets, Organic agriculture is just a tool, food security is the goal were put forth.

For more in formation information about organizing for millets, go to the website of the Deccan Development Society.
For more on food security, check out the dhaba's food security page.

Back to the Future? Why the MCD's ban on horse-drawn tongas in the Walled City may be less practical than it seems

Last week, the MCD announced that horse or mule-drawn tongas would be soon be banned from the streets of Old Delhi. The Council says the move is aimed at reducing both "cruelty to animals" and traffic congestion.  According to The Hindu, BJP Councilor Vijender Gupta summed up the motivation for the policy thus:

These animals are subjected to cruelty by their owners and made to work for long hours in extreme conditions without proper food or water. Moreover, there is no space or demand for these slow-moving, animal-driven vehicles in the city in today’s age and time.

Perhaps the MCD really is concerned about the welfare of some 230 Old Delhi horses and mules, but I, for one, am skeptical about this, given the conditions under which Delhi's 2.6 lakh street dogs live.  Not to mention the lakhs of human beings who go without basic amenities, such as toilets, that the MCD is charged with providing to residents of urban villages, resettlement colonies, regularised unauthorised colonies, slum/squatter settlements, etc.    

To me it seems clear that the real issue driving this move is not a fondness for horses, but a love of cars. Traffic in Old Delhi is a mess, and tongas make a convenient scapegoat. 

Be that as it may, one has to wonder whether Councilor Gupta is right when he says there is "no space or demand for these slow-moving, animal-driven vehicles in the city in today's age and time."

What's interesting, of course, is that if there really were no demand for tongas, then there would have been no need to ban them, because they wouldn't actually be out there plying the roads.  In fact, there is a demand for animal-powered vehicles, in the Walled City and beyond.   If you look in the right places, you will find more working animals than you might think. And they wouldn't be there if somebody wasn't making a living off of them.

Of course, Mr. Gupta is correct that there is not the "space" there once was for animals in the city.  Animal-powered transportation is banned from main roads during most of the daylight hours. Though there are always exceptions.

There's a dhaba along the brand new BRT that saves stacks of stale rotis for the elephants that happen by every so often.  An elephant can eat a lot of stale rotis. 

Because urban villages like Shahpur Jat, Kotla, and Chirag Dilli were here before they were swallowed up by Delhi, some aspects of life in those areas are not regulated like they are in the rest of the city.  In these places, many kinds of animals are still welcome.  If they were not earning their keep, it is unlikely that they would persist in such numbers.

During the early morning hours, you will still find animal-powered vehicles hauling vegetables and other goods throughout Delhi.

It is true that in "today's age and time," animals have been increasingly pushed to the margins of Delhi: the urban villages, the early morning or late night hours, the less trafficked roads.  In much of the country, however, things are different.  In Soil, not Oil, Vandana Shiva writes:

In India, there are 84 million draft animals, of  which 72 percent are oxen.  They plow two-thirds of the land and provide two-thirds of the rural transportation. There are more than 10 million animal-drawn vehicles in rural India.

If you get outside of Delhi, you will see this, of course. Though you will also hear that more and more the tractor and the truck are replacing the ox and the camel. 

In the long run, however, it's not at all clear if these changes will be sustainable; after all, tractors and trucks require diesel. Whatever we think about climate change, fossil fuels are almost certain to become much more expensive over time.  (If you want a well-reasoned, understandable explanation of why this will happen, trying reading this post on the various kinds of "peak oil" by geologist Suvrat Kher.). 

Vandana Shiva celebrates the fact that when the Cubans stopped getting cheap oil after the breakdown of the Soviet Union, they started breeding oxen to replace tractors.   We should be clear that the Cubans were not acting out of environmental ideology, but necessity.  It is also clear, from what I've read, that their experience was not at all smooth.  But after some very difficult years, they were able to get per capita food production close to where it had been when they were using much more energy-intensive farming methods.  And they avoided famine, which is certainly a good thing.  Do we have a plan for what we will do if the price of fossil fuels jumps drastically?   

Perhaps Cuba's experience is something we need to study. Given that something like 25% of our GDP, 60% of our employment, and nearly all of that stuff we call food depends on the agricultural sector, maybe we should be thinking about how to make it less, rather than more, dependent on oil.  The same goes for transportation, of course--remember that your grocery bill goes up when diesel prices rise partly because it costs more to get things to market.

It is conceivable that if oil prices continue to rise, as most experts expect them to,  animal-powered vehicles may once again become economically attractive, even necessary, right here in Delhi.  It may not be long before the MCD finds it has made a mistake: maybe it was the cars we should have been phasing out, not the tongas.